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By José María Fanelli (eds.)

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Extra info for Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy: Growth Opportunities and Macroeconomic Challenges in an Ageing World

Example text

As is well known, Thomas Malthus initiated the debate and his vision was pessimistic: as the human population grew exponentially and the food supply grew arithmetically, living standards would decline and only be able to provide the bare means of subsistence. What happened throughout the nineteenth century and early twentieth century proved Malthus’ forecasts wrong: the industrial revolution gained momentum and international trade spread prosperity across the world. 3 percent during 1500–1820 to 1 percent during 1820–1913.

World Bank, 2012 classification). Source: United Nations Population Division. 2 Varieties of experiences in population ageing (share of the working-age population in total population) Source: United Nations Population Division. some countries (such as China and Brazil) expected to age at a faster pace than others (such as Argentina and the United States). Indeed, the velocity of the transition in emerging economies will surpass that of the advanced economies. The Chinese demographic transition, for example, will be the fastest in the world (Cai and Wang, 2005).

91 Source: Author’s elaboration based on Mason (2005). DEMOGRAPHIC ASYMMETRIES 37 will be favorable and negative for the older countries. It is interesting to note the differences among the countries analyzed in the country studies of the book. Brazil and China are well ahead of India and South Africa in the demographic transition and, consequently, are expected to gain less from the FD. In comparing Brazil with China, in turn, we see that China’s drop in the support ratio will be faster than in Brazil, thus accelerating its arrival at the ageing state.

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